Will crypto pumps end in December? This key metric says no

Crypto has been in a rally since the year began, picking up momentum in the third quarter, and bringing Bitcoin to new all-time highs. To many, the rally is likely to peak in Q4, ending in December.

However, this crypto analyst, Lark Davis in a tweet on 2 October said the rally may extend into 2026 and not stop in December as some think.

An unusual pattern

Typical crypto cycles in the past have lasted for four years, with two years of expansion and two years of contraction in the ISM Index.

The ISM Index is an indicator that predicts potential movements in the crypto market. A rising ISM Index under 50 is bullish for Bitcoin, while a break above it shows that altcoins are set to rally.

Following the usual pattern, the current bull market would end in December, but this time things may be different because of a major deviation.

According to Davis, the ISM has been under 50 for two years, suggesting that no expansion has happened yet.

To put it in perspective, the ISM Index under 50 shows that Bitcoin is still growing, and has to exhaust its growth before altcoins take over at the point of breakout above 50.

Everyone's expecting this cycle to peak in Q4 this year.

But I think we're going way deeper into 2026.

Here's why:

The classic 4-year business cycle usually have 2 years of expansion and 2 years contraction.

That should’ve lined up with a Q4 2025 top.

But this time, the ISM… pic.twitter.com/yoCVd6r7LZ

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 1, 2025

This pushes the altcoin season — which is the last phase of the bull cycle — backwards, leaving plenty room for growth and the possibility that the market will rally into next year.

Current market condition

The market is currently rallying and Bitcoin remains strong, pushing higher and breaking through resistances to reach new price levels.

Screenshot of top crypto assets. Source: Coinmarketcap.com

After reaching $118,000, the top asset is set to explore new all-time highs according to crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe.

This is a great start of the month with #Bitcoin up to $117K.

The breakout above $112K was crucial.

It has done that in September, had a slight pushback to retest that level and now it's shooting towards a new all-time high. pic.twitter.com/HipYYi6hx0

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 1, 2025