As the bearish period in the cryptocurrency market continues, Bitcoin (BTC) might dip even further than it already has before the bulls can take over and send it towards a new all-time high (ATH), judging by the recent chart indicators.
Indeed, a technical roadmap suggests that Bitcoin’s path to its cycle top may not be as straightforward as many bulls would have it, and popular crypto trading analyst Egrag Crypto has shared two possible scenarios for the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset in an X post on August 26.
Scenario #1: Dip to $92K, then rally to $124K
Specifically, his first scenario suggests that BTC could first see a painful flush toward $92,000, closing the open CME gap in that region and sparking panic across the market, where it would shake out overleveraged longs. However, this would create the conditions for a rapid recovery.
If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $120,000 – $122,000 range afterwards, Egrag Crypto sees a high probability of the rally extending toward the $124,000 zone, marking a potential cycle top. Importantly, this would also coincide with the kickoff of a long-anticipated altseason as capital rotates to altcoins.
Scenario #2: Holding support at $105K, then rally
On the other hand, the expert’s second scenario envisions Bitcoin holding key support around $105,000, which could help the market avoid a deep pullback and instead grind higher in five parabolic legs. A close above $120,000 – $122,000 would then confirm continuation, reinforcing the bullish structure without testing $92,000.
As Egrag Crypto further noted, the technical setup is based around critical Fibonacci retracement levels – 0.702 Fib at $120,000 and 1.272 Fib at $122,000, and these thresholds are pivotal confirmation zones that separate a corrective dip from a euphoric breakout.
For the time being, the maiden crypto asset is changing hands at the price of $110,164.80, indicating a decline of 1.27% in the last 24 hours, a 4.59% drop across the previous seven days, as well as an accumulated loss of 6.63% on its monthly chart, per the latest data.
With only 60-90 days left in the current cycle window, Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely clear up soon. Whether through a soul-destroying correction or a steady climb, both scenarios ultimately point to a final euphoric push, and potentially the long-awaited rotation into altcoins.
Meanwhile, traders who bought Bitcoin at a mere $10 are playing the part in slowing down the rally, as the BTC supply is concentrated around those original whales who peaked their holdings in 2011 and now it takes $110,000 or more in new capital to absorb each coin they sell.
What do you think?
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