Amid a widespread slowdown in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, or the percentage of the crypto market controlled by BTC, might be on the verge of a major shift, with one analyst warning that a single technical line could determine the fate of altcoins in 2025.
Indeed, the 21-month simple moving average (SMA) is acting as the key resistance level holding back the much-anticipated altseason 2025, according to the chart analysis shared by popular crypto trading expert Egrag Crypto in an X post on August 26.
As per the latest data, BTC dominance is hovering around 58.55%, after failing to break through the 62.5% resistance zone, which the analyst emphasized as the technical barrier touched in August, and the next time Bitcoin approaches it “could signal the EPIC Fall we’re all waiting for!”
History repeating itself
Historically, similar touches of the 21 SMA on the monthly chart have preceded sharp declines in BTC dominance. Notable drops occurred in 2017 and 2021, both of which coincided with explosive rallies in altcoins. The current setup highlights potential downside targets at 55%, 50.5%, 44.57%, and even 39%.
These are the levels that Egrag Crypto marked on the chart as possible ‘vacuum zones,’ where BTC dominance could quickly collapse. The chart also suggests that the next 60-90 days could be critical for traders and investors. If Bitcoin dominance loses support, capital may rotate aggressively into altcoins.
That said, it’s worth noting that this outlook is far from certain. Should Bitcoin dominance hold above the 21 SMA and reclaim higher levels, altcoins may face extended periods of underperformance. For now, all eyes are on this important indicator, whether it acts as a springboard or a breaking point for altcoins.
Currently, the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset is changing hands at the price of $109,872.94, recording a decline of 1.08% in the last 24 hours, a 4.99% dip across the previous seven days, and an accumulated loss of 7.07% on its monthly chart.
Meanwhile, the largest altcoin in the industry, Ethereum (ETH), is trading at $4,421.23, which suggests a drop of 3.28% on the day but still indicates a 2.71% increase over the past week and a 15.61% rise during the last 30 days, according to the latest data.
All things considered, the next two to three months will see some interesting developments in the crypto sphere, where BTC’s market cap dominance is historically tied to investor confidence during uncertain macro conditions, and the battle between Bitcoin and altcoins remains a pivotal storyline heading into late 2025.
What do you think?
Join Techgaged on Telegram
Get first-access to daily trending tech stories, AI breakthroughs, and more, before it hits your feed.
