Considering its serene nature and the spectacular ‘Old Faithful’ geyser, it’s easy to forget that Yellowstone National Park lies on top of a supervolcano, and its recent seismic and thermal activity has reignited fears of a possibly devastating 1,000-year eruption.
As it happens, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) has discovered a newly-opened volcanic vent in the Roadside Springs region, producing steam at a temperature of 77 degrees Celsius (171 Fahrenheit) and a thin coat of gray siliceous clay, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said on March 17.
Considering that the USGS also recorded nine earthquakes under Mount Adams between September and November 2024, some may see this combined uptick in activity as a signal that the Yellowstone supervolcano we’ve all been warned about since childhood might be awakening.
Specifically, Mount Adams is an active volcano but hasn’t erupted in over 1,000 years, which is why scientists are constantly monitoring it for potential triggers. The Volcano Active Foundation says that supervolcano eruptions follow a certain statistical pattern in terms of their Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI).
For instance, VEI-6 eruptions occur every 100 years, VEI-7 ones every 1,000 years, and the especially devastating VEI-8s take place about once in every 100,000 years. The Lava Creek supereruption that created the current Yellowstone Caldera 631,000 years ago was VEI-8, which would mean we’re long overdue for one of those.
What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano erupted?
With the Yellowstone supervolcano being a vast reservoir of magma, it has the potential to unleash an eruption that would kill thousands, annihilate every nearby town, and cover the United States and beyond with a thick layer of ash that would plunge our planet into years-long cold darkness.
According to USGS, a catastrophic, caldera-forming Yellowstone eruption “would probably alter global weather patterns and have enormous impacts on human activity (especially agricultural production) for many years.” And we had the opportunity to witness such raw power in recent history.
Indeed, the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines was about 1,000 times smaller than Yellowstone’s largest known eruption and it has managed to cool the Earth’s surface for three years after due to the sulfur dioxide from the volcano mixing with the atmosphere.
At the peak of its impact, global temperatures dropped by 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit (0.7 degrees Celsius).
Per science website HowStuffWorks.com, if the Yellowstone supervolcano erupted, lava would immediately kill as many as 90,000 people, its 10-foot (3-feet) thick layer of molten ash spreading as far as 1,000 miles (1,609) from the park preventing rescuers from getting near.
Furthermore, the release and spread of ash and gases into the atmosphere would bring most air travel to a halt, like happened during an Iceland volcano eruption 15 years ago. Some experts believe it would even lead to the ‘nuclear winter,’ in the U.S. and other parts of the world as the ash dims the sunlight.
The resulting temperature drops would have a disastrous effect on our food supply, obliterating crops and derailing the food chain by leaving those at the bottom with little to eat, which is what many climate scientists believe happened in 535 C.E. after a supervolcano erupted in Java.
Is Yellowstone about to destroy us all?
Thankfully, humankind doesn’t seem to be in any imminent danger (at least not from a Yellowstone supervolcano). In the view of YVO’s Scientist-in-Charge Mike Poland, “most Yellowstone eruptions do not fit this worst-case scenario.” However, he warns that the “aftermath of such an explosion wouldn’t be pleasant” either.
Still, the USGS estimates the probability of Yellowstone blowing its top again is about 0.00014% each year, especially as there haven’t been any eruptions there in recent times and the magma chamber beneath the caldera being only 5-15% molten, which means they may not be enough lava flow for strong eruptions to begin with.
Meanwhile, if the Yellowstone supervolcano does happen to surprise everyone and decides to go off soon, we might be able to find our new home in outer space, as the Center of Space Exploration (COSE) in China has proposed building ‘extraterrestrial planet cave bases.’
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