Peak Bitcoin? McGlone Says The Risk-Asset Iceberg May Be Cracking

Bitcoin (BTC) may be flashing a warning signal that extends well beyond short-term price action, and the cryptocurrency’s shift from 2025 outperformer to laggard could carry broader implications to risk assets heading into 2026.

These are the conclusions that Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone shared in two X posts on December 22, arguing that Bitcoin topping Bloomberg’s annual macro performance scorecard earlier this year, only to fade sharply afterward, may resemble late-cycle behavior rather than a healthy consolidation.

In his view, Bitcoin’s underperformance could signal that the broader risk-asset complex has already seen its peak.

Bitcoin’s Role As A ‘Canary’ For Risk Assets

McGlone frames Bitcoin not just as a standalone trade, but as a high-beta guide for speculative markets. A notable concern is that Bitcoin may finish 2025 as a ‘leading loser,’ despite starting the year strong, in a reversal that has historically aligned with weakening liquidity conditions.

At the same time, gold has surged, climbing more than 60% year-to-date (YTD), while crude oil and Bitcoin have trended lower. McGlone suggests this divergence raises an uncomfortable question: are markets quietly preparing for slower growth or recession-like conditions?

The strategist also revisits a longer-term comparison that has weighed on crypto narratives. Since April 2021, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has delivered essentially flat returns, while the Nasdaq-100 is up roughly 90% over the same period. That gap becomes harder to ignore when adjusted for volatility.

Meanwhile, crypto’s volatility remains elevated, nearly three times that of the Nasdaq-100, without the compensating upside investors typically expect from higher-risk assets. McGlone notes that this imbalance could become more problematic if equity markets stumble in 2026.

While McGlone stops short of declaring Bitcoin ‘dead,’ his outlook challenges the idea that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) alone can sustain long-term upside. If 2025 marked the peak of institutional pile-ins, he suggests the next phase for crypto may involve recalibrating expectations rather than chasing new highs.

Currently, BTC is trading at $87,670.70, down 2.39% on the day, up 0.63% across the week, and advancing 1.82% over the past month, according to the most recent price chart information.

For now, Bitcoin’s struggle to keep pace with both gold and equities is reshaping its macro narrative and raising fresh questions about where risk truly belongs in the market cycle.

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