Central Europe is experiencing its worst flooding disaster in recent history, with Austria and Poland being hit the hardest. At least 16 people have died with several others missing. The rare weather event that started in early September 2024 is caused by a strange blend of extreme conditions.
In Poland, a dam burst, needing military and aviation rescue teams to protect settlements near local rivers. Some areas are now unreachable by land in Austria, while over 250,000 households have lost power in the Czech Republic. Germany’s Bavaria region is also struggling with floods from these heavy storms.
This summer, the Mediterranean Sea broke many records. Its waters warmed to high levels, resulting in the disastrous weather in the region. Severe weather developed in the region because of high sea surface temperatures that increased evaporation, offering enough moisture for stormy weather to develop.
An extensive and unusual cold front from the Arctic spread into Europe early in September. Thus extreme weather was formed through a powerful crash between heat and cold.
The clash of these two conditions, coupled with high-pressure systems and the region’s mountainous landscape, caused a weather event that has never happened in Central Europe. This convergence of heat and cold created a powerful thermal boundary. Notably, this thermal boundary caused severe rainfall when paired with the orographic effect.
The storm caused havoc for several days
High-pressure systems nearby helped lock this storm in place over Central Europe. Notably, the rain continued falling for days continuously. As this storm stalled, moisture spread over the Mediterranean and focused around the Black Sea.
London-based meteorologist Scott Duncan highlighted that this precipitation created a huge atmospheric river that directed excess water from the Black Sea and Mediterranean into Central Europe. The increased atmospheric water caused unexpectedly high rain and historic floods.
The severe weather event was predicted around five days before it happened using advanced weather models. Meteorologists started seeing signs of what would develop into one of the most terrible flooding events in European history. Despite everything, the scale of this disaster hit unexpectedly for most because rainfall predictions aligned with the worst-case scenarios.
How the storm formed
While Central Europe has experienced extreme weather previously, this flooding disaster stands out. It featured a lot more than the collision of heat and cold. The storm combined orographic enhancement (where mountains increase precipitation, high pressure, and trapped weather patterns, causing increased rainfall and extensive devastation.
Ultimately, erratic cold fronts, rising sea temperatures, and climate change caused severe and extended weather events. Central Europe has experienced firsthand the destructive power of all these elements converging.
