Ethereum ETFs Post 7 Days of Outflows; Tom Lee Says $250,000 Is Coming. Who’s Right?

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Ethereum faces short-term headwinds from persistent ETF outflows, yet bold long-term forecasts from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee continue to capture attention. 

As of late March 2026, ETH trades near $1,987–$1,991 on major exchanges. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows for six consecutive days, with $92.54 million net withdrawn on March 26 alone, according to SoSoValue data tracked by multiple outlets. This brings the recent streak into focus amid broader market consolidation.

Technical Analysis: Downtrend Intact but Relative Strength Emerging

The weekly ETH/USD chart (March 28, 2026) reveals ongoing pressure. Price hovers around $1,987 after testing lower levels, with the Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2) dots positioned above the candles — confirming sellers retain control in the broader trend.

The MACD (12,26,close) shows deeply negative readings (around –65 / –323), with extended red histogram bars reflecting sustained bearish momentum.

The ETH/BTC pair at 0.03004 (+0.10% weekly) offers a slightly more constructive view. Price consolidates near recent lows, with the SAR trending lower and MACD negative values narrowing (–0.00033 / –0.00067 / –0.00099). 

This hints at stabilizing relative momentum against Bitcoin. Support zones sit near $1,755–$1,900 on the USD pair and 0.02834 on BTC.

Resistance appears at $2,300 and 0.04000BTC. A weekly close above the key dotted resistance on ETH/BTC could signal improving altcoin dynamics.

ETF Outflows: Short-Term Caution Dominates

The seven-day outflow streak underscores near-term investor caution. On March 26, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) led redemptions, though some staking-focused products saw partial offsets. 

Cumulative data from SoSoValue and Farside Investors shows repeated weekly net outflows in March 2026, including $41.97 million on March 20 and $131.2 million around March 19. These figures highlight selective profit-taking and macro-driven risk aversion, even as total AUM in ETH ETFs remains substantial.

Tom Lee’s Ultra-Bullish Outlook

In stark contrast, Bitmine Chairman and Fundstrat veteran Tom Lee maintains extreme optimism. In early 2026 communications to shareholders, Lee projected scenarios where Ethereum could reach $12,000 if Bitcoin hits $250,000 and ETH/BTC reclaims historical ratios — or even $250,000 in an outsized case tied to Bitcoin at $1 million. 

These targets assume strong network adoption, staking growth, and ratio expansion. Lee’s views appear in shareholder messages and interviews, such as those covered here:

Who’s Right? Short-Term Reality vs. Long-Term Vision

Short-term, ETF outflows and negative MACD favor caution — Ethereum could retest lower supports if flows remain negative. 

However, Ethereum’s underlying strengths in Layer-2 scaling, DeFi utility, and staking yields provide a fundamental floor that outflows alone may not erode.

Lee’s calls represent the optimistic extreme, betting on macro tailwinds and historical ratio mean-reversion. Current price action suggests the market is digesting short-term selling while long-term holders position quietly. 

Traders should watch for ETF flow reversals and a decisive break above resistance for confirmation of a trend shift.

Ethereum sits at the intersection of institutional redemption pressure and visionary upside forecasts. The coming weeks will help determine whether near-term outflows dominate or if Lee’s long-term thesis begins to gain traction.

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