Bitcoin Faces 66% Crash Warning After Losing Critical Support Level

In Brief

• Bitcoin has fallen below a major long-term moving average, raising serious concerns of a deeper downtrend.
• An analyst warns that the last time BTC lost this level, the market suffered a 66% crash, and the same setup is repeating.
• Despite strong whale accumulation, retail selling continues, putting altcoins at similar risk if Bitcoin collapses.

Shedrach Kongvong 2025-11-20

Bitcoin just slipped beneath one of the most important support indicators in the entire market cycle, and historically, when this line gives way, the crash that follows is brutal. The last time BTC broke below this level, it plunged 66%. Analysts say the same setup is now forming again.

According to data shared by a crypto analyst, Bitcoin can crash by 66% from its current level based on previous data, but what exactly does this mean?

BTC’s Breakdown Mirrors a Historical Pattern

Bitcoin recently closed below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an early sign of weakness. The drop under the 50-week SMA confirms the trend shift, with BTC now struggling to regain the level despite minor relief rallies.

Since then, it has been a continuous correction with a bit of a rally, but the coin currently sits below the SMA, a line showing the average price of the asset over a period of time.

According to the analyst, the last time the price broke below the SMA, there was a 66% correction, which raises concerns because cryptocurrency patterns tend to rhyme year in year out.

Bitcoin $BTC is back under the 50-week SMA! The last breakdown from here led to a 66% drawdown. pic.twitter.com/jQvbIq60Wf

— Ali (@ali_charts) November 20, 2025

At today’s price near $91,887, another 66% decline would drag Bitcoin toward the $31,000 region. A level many investors hoped was left behind for good.

A Collapse Would Ripple Through the Entire Crypto Market

When BTC trends sharply downward, altcoins follow even harder. And with no signs of an altcoin season in play, the broader market remains vulnerable to Bitcoin’s movements.

By current indications, the altcoin season isn’t here yet, so a Bitcoin crash as massive as 66% is likely to cause a crash in the rest of the market as well.

Although data shows that whales are buying more of the coin, the current data still shows weakness as retail capitulation continues. institutional accumulation can’t offset widespread panic selling if BTC confirms a macro breakdown.

For now, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 50-week SMA. If it can’t, the market may be heading into one of its most volatile phases yet.