Bitcoin Indicator Flashes Warning: Another 60% Crash?

⚡ KEY TAKEAWAYS

Bitcoin’s monthly MACD flipped bearish, a signal that has preceded major crashes.
BTC dominance is weakening as the Fed ends quantitative tightening.
Analysts are divided between a deep correction and a major long-term rally.

Even for a market used to turbulence, Bitcoin (BTC)’s latest cluster of signals is hard to ignore. Bitcoin dominance is flashing a historic warning, the Fed is ending QT within days, and top analysts are suddenly split between a 60% crash and a $500K future.

Rare Monthly Signal Flips – Pointing Straight at $40,000

Indeed, Bitcoin’s monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has just turned bearish, indicating a rare shift that has historically preceded market drops around 60%, according to the data shared by popular cryptocurrency trading expert Ali Martinez in an X post on November 24.

Bitcoin's monthly MACD bearish history. — *Bitcoin’s monthly MACD bearish history. Source: Ali Martinez*

As it happens, in the three previous cycles, Bitcoin fell 63%, 61%, and 67%, forming deep macro bottoms. If the pattern repeats, BTC aligns almost perfectly with a $40,000 retest, a level many believed was gone for good.

Fed Ends QT in 7 Days – BTC Dominance Warns of Trouble

At the same time, market technician Matthew Hyland spotlighted a parallel that is suddenly impossible to miss. Specifically, the last time the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening, Bitcoin dominance collapsed 22% over the following year.

*BTC Dominance + Fed QT Timeline. Source: Matthew Hyland/TradingView*

With QT ending again in a week, dominance is already rolling over in a setup that Hyland refers to as bearish across timeframes. Lower dominance during risk-off periods historically signals capital fleeing into stablecoins or equities, not rotating into altcoins.

Two Competing Futures: $50K or $150K in 2026?

Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone says the tightening macro environment leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to its bearish target, arguing that:

“My bias is toward $50,000, particularly if the S&P 500 has a third down year wince 2008.”

For reference, he pointed to a parabolic move in gold, collapsing crude oil, and historically low volatility – a combination that has preceded sharp reversion in speculative assets.

*S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin chart. Source: Mike McGlone*

However, not everyone agrees. Pseudonymous crypto analyst PlanB, the creator of the famous stock-to-flow model, opined that nothing had changed since he first published the thesis in 2019.

In his model, Bitcoin reached the $1T market cap target for the 2020-2024 halving cycle, and the next programmed step is $10T – or $500,000 per BTC sometime before 2028.

*Stock-to-flow $500K target chart. Source: PlanB*

Market’s Crossroads Moment

For the time being, Bitcoin is trading at $85,859.84, down 0.27% on the day, dropping 10.21% in the past week, and having declined 23.08% over the last month, according to the most recent price chart information.

*Bitcoin price 7-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap*

One fact remains unavoidable – Bitcoin just triggered a cluster of signals we only see near major macro turning points. Monthly MACD and BTC dominance are bearish, the Fed is ending QT, and analysts are split across the widest range in years.

Aside from that, a major blow arrives from VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, who has recently questioned whether Bitcoin provides sufficient encryption and privacy during a CNBC appearance, stating the asset manager could pull away from Bitcoin if these concerns prove valid.

All things considered, the next move will likely define the rest of the cycle.